|Table of Contents|

Risk assessment model of combined spacecraft based on PRA(PDF)

《火箭推进》[ISSN:1672-9374/CN:CN 61-1436/V]

Issue:
2019年01期
Page:
59-65
Research Field:
研究与设计
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Risk assessment model of combined spacecraft based on PRA
Author(s):
ZHOU Haocheng YANG Hong XIA Qiaoli
(Institute of Manned Space Engineering, China Academy of Space Technology,Beijing 100094, China)
Keywords:
combined spacecraft PRA fault tree integrated design
PACS:
V475
DOI:
-
Abstract:
For the characteristics of high reliability and small sample of combined spacecraft, this paper takes the control and propulsion system of combined spacecraft as an example to establish a PRA-based risk assessment model for multi-cabin integrated design scheme. By comparing the fault tree and the relative difference between the two schemes using and not using integrated design, in order to verify the contribution of integrated design to the reliability of the system, it is verified qualitatively and quantitatively that integrated design can significantly reduce the probability of major risks of the combined spacecraft thrust control system. By analyzing the importance weight of the major risk, the importance ranking of the major risk of the combined spacecraft thrust control system is obtained. From the risk point of view, some suggestions for decision makers to apply the integrated design are also provided.

References:

[1] 任培,周经纶,郑龙.基于PRA方法风险评估系统的设计与研究[J].计算机应用研究, 2007,24(6):91-93.
[2] PAT-COMELL E, DILLON R.Probabilistic risk analysis for the NASA space shuttle:a brief history and current work[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2001, 74: 345-352.
[3] MAGGIO G.Space shuttle probabilistic risk assessment: methodology & application[C]//Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium.Las Vegas: IEEE,1996.
[4] HAMLIN T L, CANGA M A, BOYER R L, et al.2009 space shuttle probabilistic risk assessment overview[C]//10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference.Seattle:ESRA,2010.
[5] BIGLER M, CANGA M A, DUNCAN G.Extravehicular activity probabilistic risk assessment overview for thermal protection system repair on the Hubble space telescope servicing mission [C]// 10th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference.Seattle:ESRA,2010.
[6] SMITH C A.Probabilistic risk assessment for the international space station [C]//Joint ESA-NASA Space-flight Safety Conference.New York: ESA-NASA, 2002.
[7] PERERA J, HOLSOMBACK J.Use of probabilistic risk assessments for the space station program conference [C]//2004 IEEE Aerospace Conference.Gaithersburg: IEEE, 2004.
[8] PRASSIONS P G, STAMATELATOS M G,YOUNG J,et al.Constellation probabilistic risk assessment(PRA): design consideration for the CEV[R].Washington: NASA, 2006.
[9] STAMATELATOS M.Probabilistic risk assessment procedures guide for NASA managers and practitioner[R].Washington: NASA, 2002.
[10] 李健,栾家辉,刘春雷.我国空间站过程量化风险评估工作探讨[J].载人航天,2014,20(3):249-255.
[11] MICHAEL S, WILLIAM V, DUGAN J B, et a1.Fault tree handbook with aerospace applications(Version 1.1)[R].Washington: NASA, 2002.
[12] 节永师,王伟,王功,等.载人航天概率风险评价工程事件及其在空间应用中的前景分析[J].载人航天,2017,23(1):98-113.
[13] 刘瑛,李敏强,陈富赞.飞行器机动动作风险定量评估模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2014,36(3):469-475.
[14] 王一枫,汤伟,刘路登,等.电网运营风险评估与定级体系的构建及应用[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(8):141-148.
[15] 丁明,肖瑶,张晶晶,等.基于事故链及动态故障树的电网连锁故障风险评估模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(4):821-829.
[16] 周海京,遇今,郑恒.概率风险评价技术及应用[J].质量与可靠性,2007(6):6-8.
[17] 遇今,张海龙.航天器研制风险管理过程及实施[J].质量与可靠性,2011(1):20-26.
[18] 沈阳武,彭晓涛,施通勤,等.基于最优组合权重的电能质量灰色综合评价方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,36(10):67-73.
[19] 张春晓,严爱军,王普.一种改进的案例推理分类方法研究[J].自动化学报,2014,40(9):2015-2021.

Memo

Memo:
-
Last Update: 2019-02-20